Building materials trend forecast on October 29: The overall market mentality is positive, and the current price is expected to be stable and rising

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Building materials trend forecast on October 29: The overall market mentality is positive, and the current price is expected to be stable and rising

On the 28th, the price of snails nationwide was on the strong side, ranging from 10 to 20. Among the 52 sample cities, 1 city fell, accounting for 1.9%, 14 cities rose, accounting for 26.9%, and the remaining 37 cities maintained stable operations. Accounted for 71.2%, the second and third-tier steel mills in the southern region have suspended sales. The northern quotations are mostly stable and strong. The main trend is to actively reduce the inventory. The overall market mentality is good and the transaction is acceptable. At present, the market is tentatively rising. It mainly depends on the degree of acceptance by the downstream. Considering that the fourth quarter is approaching the end of the month, the macro instability factors have gathered together, and the speculative attributes have increased.

  The main influencing factors are as follows:

   1. The U.S. election is approaching, and the dollar is unstable

  2, the billet end support is relatively firm

  3, winter storage rush to schedule ahead of schedule

   4. Steel mill inventory is high. It is estimated that the price of Hegang's third-grade seismic snails in Beijing market is 3680 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day; the Shanghai market Shagang's third-grade snails is 3730 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Guangzhou market Shaogang's third-grade snails is 4130 Yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day.

  【Future market analysis】

   On the 29th day of the night trading, the snail 2101 opened at 3652, with a slight increase in the inter-day trading, the highest was 3667, the lowest was 3650, and it closed at 3662, up 19 or 0.52%. Futures snails have limited room for continued growth in the short term, and investors can lighten their positions on rallies.

  【Industry Information】

  1. Shanghai Stock Exchange: From September to October, domestic and overseas financing of real estate companies across the country accelerated, with domestic bond issuance exceeding 100 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.6%. Developers take the initiative to adjust the debt structure and actively reduce leverage and debt by speeding up sales, reducing land acquisition, selling assets, and seeking equity financing.

  2. China Securities Journal: Under the influence of the restricted purchase policy, the transaction of commercial housing in Beijing is bleak, and the sales of new houses are generally unsalable. Many real estates that entered the market before the 2017 purchase restriction policy is still on sale are currently on sale. These new real estates have already entered the market for second-hand housing transactions, and there is a relatively large "upside down" phenomenon in prices. The sales of some real estates have been bleak all year round. In order to increase cash flow, related companies have already pledged the projects, which caused the new houses to be unable to sign online normally.