Steel Market Prodiction
Steel Market Prodiction
The results of the US general election will be announced tomorrow. The futures market is mostly on the sidelines. Under the turbulent operation of the futures snails, the market mentality is relatively strong, the overall shipment performance is weak, the transaction of high-level resources is weak, and downstream users still hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude in purchasing. As a result of the weak rise, merchants’ mentality is flat, and the quotations are running steadily, basically maintaining yesterday’s prices. However, because downstream traders are not optimistic about the market outlook, they mostly get goods on demand and are not willing to stock up. Given that the upstream market is also unstable, it is expected Tomorrow's steel prices may stabilize and adjust.
Foresee the detailed analysis, continue to look down...
1. The influencing factors are as follows
1. The sales of heavy trucks in October increased by 41% year-on-year, and the annual sales volume may hit a record high
On the first day of Tmall Double 11 pre-sales, Taobao mini-excavator orders increased by nearly 150% year-on-year and transaction volume increased by approximately 140% year-on-year. The industry predicts that the annual sales volume of related construction machinery products will hit a record high. According to the latest data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, my country's heavy-duty truck market is expected to sell approximately 129,000 vehicles of various types in October, a significant increase of 41% year-on-year.
2. The central bank's open market today invested a net 20 billion yuan
The central bank launched a 120 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today. Because 100 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expires today, a net investment of 20 billion yuan was realized that day.
The central bank's open market 7-day reverse repurchase operation won the bid rate of 2.20%, the same as before.
3. October sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 21.5% year-on-year
In October, real estate companies seized the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival sales window period to actively promote sales. Leading real estate companies achieved significantly better sales results than other real estate companies. On the whole, the actual effect of market de-allocation in September and October was not satisfactory. In the fourth quarter, there was still greater pressure on the de-dealization of real estate enterprises. According to the latest data released by the Crane Research Center, the top 100 real estate companies achieved full-caliber sales of 128.473 billion yuan in October, down 3.6% month-on-month and up 21.5% year-on-year; in the first 10 months of this year, the top 100 real estate companies have achieved full-caliber sales. The sales amount was 9,935.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%.
Second, the spot market
Construction steel: steady increase
Currently supported by inventory resources, traders generally maintain stability and wait and see. Merchants often follow the market. The market trading atmosphere is light. The downstream demand is generally weak. The spot resources are overall sporadic. The arrival of goods in the north is also very few. Inventory has been at a low level for a long time and it is difficult to change. Consider supply and demand The dilemma is difficult to change. It is expected that the price of building materials may rise and adjust tomorrow.
Hot-rolled coils: stable and strong
High spot transactions were weak, merchants' mentality was slightly lower, and they were actively shipping. Market transactions were still cautious. Businesses reported that steel mills were very expensive and settlement costs were high. However, the downstream continued to suppress the high spot mentality, only low transactions, lack of confidence , The U.S. election is now in the countdown, the spot is affected by macroeconomics and futures, and there are more uncertainties. The wait-and-see sentiment of the market is strong. It is expected that the hot-rolled price tomorrow may stabilize.
Medium and heavy plates: the main steady rise
Future snails remain red and fluctuating, lack of confidence in high positions, merchants are weak in shipments, and prices are slightly profitable to facilitate transactions. The atmosphere is poor. Under the support of cost, the mentality of steel companies is relatively strong. Considering the high demand is not good, but the low mentality is acceptable. The shipment is mainly accompanied, and the price of plate is expected to be consolidated in a narrow range tomorrow.
Strip steel: steady increase
The futures remain red and volatile, and the effect of boosting the market is limited. The downstream has not been released as expected. Traders generally operate cautiously. The market transactions are average. The overall wait-and-see sentiment is strong. Demand release is still limited. It is over, and the current inventory changes are not under pressure. Considering that the cost is acceptable, strip steel prices are expected to rise steadily tomorrow.
Profile: the main steady rise
At the beginning of the month, market demand improved, inventory declined, but profits were not substantial, and many merchants held a wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook. Although there are signs of improvement in the market, most merchants replenish inventory and maintain stable operations on demand. Based on strong raw materials, it is expected tomorrow The market price of profiles may be stabilized.
Pipe: Maintain stability
The macro news is exhausted. At present, the raw materials are strong to support the market, and the market prices remain stable. The overall transaction performance is average, and the high-level goods are slightly cautious. At present, the raw materials of the control plants are sufficient, and the manufacturers' mentality can still focus on shipments. It is expected tomorrow Pipe prices may be firm and adjusted.
Third, the raw material market
Iron ore: steady rise
The general index is operating below 120, and merchants remain on the sidelines. After the environmental protection is lifted, the supply side resumes. However, the current procurement volume of steel companies is small and the delivery is not ideal. The market as a whole is generally weak. With the downward adjustment of steel companies, market prices follow The drop is about 10 yuan, but after the drop, traders mostly stayed on the sidelines and operated cautiously. It is expected that the iron ore market will be stable and adjusted tomorrow.
Scrap steel: weak operation
With the start of the sixth round of coke rise, the cost of molten iron remains high, the profit of long-process steelmaking is squeezed to maintain a low level, and the short-process flat power production is also on the edge of break-even. Under the expectation of seasonal weakening of terminal demand, The willingness of steel companies to increase production is low, and it is expected that scrap prices may rise steadily tomorrow.
Affected by environmental protection inspections and capacity reductions, some coking companies have suspended or restricted production, market supply has shortened, overall resources are tight, and finished products are improving. The demand for coke at high operating rates of steel plants in various regions is strong, and coking companies have started the sixth round of increase by 50 , The business mentality is good and bullish, and the coke price is expected to rise steadily tomorrow.
Pig iron: stable and medium
The enthusiasm of steel mills for steelmaking purchases is acceptable. Iron mills have low inventories. Driven by the price increase of coke and scrap, the quotations of iron mills have been raised one after another. Some iron mills are reluctant to sell at low prices and do not ship. Market resources are tight, and iron plants have no inventory on order The production schedule is in progress, but the coke rises again by 50, which has boosted the mentality of the merchants. The iron mills are multi-dimensional and wait-and-see, the cost of pig iron is high, and the merchants have an increased bullish mentality. It is expected that the price of pig iron may rise steadily tomorrow.