Tommorrow Market Prodiction 2020/11/6
Tommorrow Market Prodiction
Affected by the US presidential election, U.S. stocks rose sharply, domestic black futures remained red and fluctuated, and steel billets rose 20 consecutively. Traders’ confidence was boosted, and the low market was still supported. Traders were willing to ship rallies, but trading at high levels was obvious. Weakness and a large increase in downstream acceptance are limited. Taking into account the temporary support of the cost side and low inventory, it is expected that the steel prices will stabilize and adjust individually in the future.
Foresee the detailed analysis, continue to look down...
1. The influencing factors are as follows
1. The average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises in late October was 2,156,600 tons
According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in late October 2020, key statistical iron and steel enterprises produced a total of 23,722,100 tons of crude steel, 2,076,500 tons of pig iron, 23,571,100 tons of steel, and 3.6211 million tons of coke.
This week’s average daily output was 2,156,600 tons of crude steel, a decrease of 0.77% month-on-month and an increase of 9.58% year-on-year; pig iron 1,887,900 tons, a decrease of 2.07% month-on-month, and an increase of 7.65% year-on-year; steel 2,142,800 tons, an increase of 3.19% month-on-month and an increase of 9.41% year-on-year .
2. In late October 2020, the inventory of key steel enterprises was 12.147800 tons
According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in late October 2020, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 12.147800 tons, a decrease of 1.5419 million tons from the previous ten-day period, a decrease of 11.26%; an increase of 2,615,400 tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 27.44%; compared with the same period last year An increase of 676,800 tons, an increase of 5.90%.
In late October 2020, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises was 2,156,600 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 0.77%, and a year-on-year increase of 9.58%.
3. Ministry of Commerce: China’s absorption of foreign capital in the global share is expected to rise steadily this year
According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce of China, China's absorption of foreign capital in global cross-border direct investment (FDI) increased from 6.6% in 2015 to 9.2% in 2019, and this year is expected to continue to increase steadily.
Second, the spot market
Construction steel: upward adjustment
The snails have fluctuated upward, and the billet rose by 20 to 3,500 yuan/ton. The cost side is firmly supported, and the market mentality is improving. Merchants are mainly engaged in upstream shipments, but the terminal demand is high and the acceptance is limited. It is expected that the price of building materials may rise steadily tomorrow.
Hot rolled coils: rising
Affected by the red volatility of futures steel, the rising raw material end drove the spot operation sentiment and boosted the spot market mentality. Many merchants are shipping firmly and the market inventory pressure is not great. The merchants have a positive attitude and the overall transaction is good. It is expected that the hot rolled price tomorrow Stable and strong adjustment.
Black futures continued to run red, but the weather gradually turned colder and demand was shrinking. The overall market trading atmosphere was sluggish. Merchants had multi-dimensional stable shipments. Recently, a small amount of resources have arrived. Merchants have little pressure on sales and the raw materials are trending strong. The market mentality is more optimistic, and it is expected that the plate price may consolidate within a narrow range tomorrow.
The trend of futures and billet is strong, the downstream purchasing sentiment improves, and the merchants are willing to stand up for the price. Considering that the inventory pressure is not obvious, the merchants are cautious about the shipment, and the downstream is more cautious in purchasing on demand. The overall transaction volume is flat. The price may stabilize and adjust upward.
Profile: steady adjustment
The strong support from the raw material end is strong and the steel plate will remain red and fluctuate during the superimposed period. The market mentality is acceptable, and the merchants are rising. The demand for real orders is relatively ordinary. The environmental protection production limit policy is introduced in various places, and the supply of steel mills is reduced, but the merchants mostly clear warehouses. Downstream on-demand purchases are mostly, and supply and demand are in a weakly balanced state. The price continues to rise due to demand dragged down by the lack of momentum. It is expected that the price of profile materials will rise tomorrow.
Pipe: Maintain stability
As the weather turns cooler, downstream demand falls short of expectations, and social inventories have relatively declined. However, production is limited in winter, and the supply is slightly tight. Most merchants are flexible and wait and see without much action, and there are no rash hoarders who follow the market. , Replenishment on demand, the pipe market is expected to be stable tomorrow.
Third, the raw material market
Iron ore: shock adjustment
The general index fluctuates below US$120, and most businesses remain on the sidelines. Recently, the Tangshan Mine Concentrator has gradually started construction but considering the profit space, the low-grade resources are improving, and the high-priced resources are still cautious. The overall market turnover is average. In the Liaoning market, mining companies are not willing to ship goods, and prices in Fushun are slightly lower. Because steel companies are cautious in purchasing, traders and stockyards have narrow operating space, and the market is mostly on the sidelines. It is expected that the iron ore market will continue to operate steadily tomorrow.
Scrap steel: the main stability of individual rises
With the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation, enterprises are in the period of resumption of work, the production side of steel mills is booming, and the demand for scrap steel is growing rapidly, which has led to a new round of bull market for scrap steel, and heating in the north has entered the autumn and winter, and coke prices have increased for the sixth round. , It is expected that the scrap price may rise steadily tomorrow.
At present, steel mills in various regions have successively accepted the sixth round of coke increase, and the coke increase in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and other regions has gradually landed. At present, coke prices have increased by 300, coking enterprises have high profits, and production is active. Procurement is active, coke enterprises' inventory is low, and market supply is tight. It is expected that coke prices will continue to rise tomorrow.
Pig iron: the main steady rise
With the improvement of the steel market, the enthusiasm of steel plants to purchase has increased, and the inventories of various subway plants have remained low. As the cost of coke price increases, iron plants’ quotations have been raised one after another. For now, the cost of pig iron is high, and iron plants have no inventory. It is expected that the price of pig iron may continue to strengthen tomorrow.